There’s a story that during WWII, plane that survived and were coming back from dangerous missions were usually buttered in bullet holes. Usually those holes were grouped around the wings and the fuselage.
So they needed to put armour on those planes to protect them against bullet and increase survival rate of the pilots and planes. They thought that putting armour were the bullet hole were was the way to go, on the wings, the doors and the fuselage.
But one smart person, I think it was a general in the story, thought that putting armoured plate were there was no hole was actually the way to go, and indeed it was.
Because all the plane that came back with the hole on the wings and the fuselage had survived. But the one with the hole in the motor, aileron or helices did not survived. So those were the places that needed protection, not the wings!
This is exactly what is happening right now in crypto investing. You have to look for the people who are not writing blog posts, the one who are not boasting about making 1000x investing on twitter and the one no one cares about because they are broke. Those are the crashed planes that you will never see and this is what you should be looking for.
People are being led to the slaughter house without noticing it. The people who made 1000x on a cryptocurrency are simply the lucky survivor and doing what they tell you is the worst thing you could be doing. (and here I am pretending to know and telling you what to do…)
So you get a 100 investors. They all roll a dice and choose a cryptocurrency accordingly. if someone’s cryptocurrency investment goes up, it is not because he is the smartest of the bunch, he is just simply lucky because he rolled a dice like everyone else.
Okay, maybe when he rolled his dice he uttered some magic words and did a little dance. But still, it’s luck.
There was one skill needed to figure out Bitcoin would go up. It was the first to exist, it allowed you to move money across border. It was the pseudo-anonymity of transaction and its scarcity. So people noticed and bought and used it and they were happy. All the early adopter will not be switching anytime soon.
The next cryptocurrency genius idea will be replaced by the next cryptocurrency genius idea and so on. There will always be a more shiny crypto to invest in and so there’s no way any of them could have staying power.
And yes, I was a lucky survivor. I was disillusioned before and thought I could call which cryptocurrency would go up. The thing is that when The market goes up, everyone become a fortune teller because everything goes up. There is no wrong answer. Then the market crash, most crypto don’t make it, but Bitcoin survived. Bitcoin always survived.
So don’t do it. Don’t buy another crypto. Buy Bitcoin and hodl… Unless I say otherwise, then obviously it’s the smart thing to do. 😉